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Hindcast: Replaying Prediction Markets to Evaluate LLM Forecasters
LLM预测评估存在后测信息泄漏，Hindcast方法提出用预测市场回放来规避这种偏差。
arXiv:2607.14051v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Forecasters are evaluated by backtesting, which replays resolved questions and grades the probability …